A new year, a new scapegoat. Last year’s playoff failure was blamed on the Cubs being too right-handed. Now, at least based on what Cubs manager Lou Piniella recently had to say, the thinking is that the Cubs are too slow.

Lou’s need for speed aside, it is true that the Cubs are a slow, plodding bunch. They rank last in the NL in stolen bases. And while the stolen base has not been as popular since ‘roided up players starting popping muscles out of their shirt sleeves, it seems to be on a bit of a comeback.

Meanwhile, rumor has it that the Cubs will try to “steal” Chone Figgins if he enters the free agent market.

Figgins certainly has speed. But he has barely been an effective base stealer this season. The primary value of the stolen base lies in the success rate; stealing at less than a 75 percent success rate is detrimental to an offense. This year, Figgins has stolen 39 bases and has been caught 16 times, for a 70 percent success rate.

So, while his speed may help him get infield hits, and score more runs, his basestealing would seem to hurt the team more than help.

In addition to speed, I’m sure that Lou also believes he needs a true lead-off hitter. Figgins’ near .400 OBP would seem to fit that bill quite nicely.

Now, it seems to this scribe that the Cubs have other problems besides lack of speed—an inability to hit with runners in scoring position; a low OBP and shaky defense, among other criteria has accounted for much of the team’s lack of success this year.

Luckily, though the reasoning may be faulty, Lou’s desire for his team to get faster still could result in offensive improvement if the right player is acquired.

Figgins could be one of those “right” players.

One problem is, of course, that there will be many suitors for his services, including the team on the other side of town. White Sox GM Kenny Williams is said to have wanted Figgins for a long time.

Of course, you certainly can’t discount the probability of the Angels wanting to bring him back.

Buster Olney thinks Chone Figgins will end up in left field with the Yankees.

What about his age? He turns 32 in January, so the obvious question is, how long will that speed Lou talks about hold up?

Enter Dan Szymborski, whose ZIPS system is one of the most highly regarded player projection tools in the sabermetric community. The BaseballThinkFactory had this quote from Mr. Szymborski regarding Figgins:

“In Figgins’ case, he has a broad range of skills,” Szymborski said. “Those types of players tend to age well.”

Barring injury, Szymborski doesn’t believe that Figgins will face a steep decline anytime soon.

“When you’re talking about a guy who’s already 31 and is still a speed player, you’re not going to see a sudden decline,” Szymborski said. “There’s no real danger he’s going to become Sean Casey on the bases in the next few years.”

-Bob Warja